MarketPulse
AI
MarketsStocksEvent MarketsPlaygroundScreenersAI ForecastsNewsLearn
MarketPulse
AI

AI-powered market intelligence for Indian and global stocks — fundamentals, technicals, news sentiment, and probabilistic forecasts in one place.

Educational only. Educational only — not financial advice. Markets are risky. Consult a SEBI-registered investment adviser or licensed financial professional before investing.

Product

  • Markets
  • Stocks
  • Event Markets
  • Screeners
  • AI Forecasts
  • Pricing

Learn

  • Education
  • News
  • Basics
  • Technical analysis
  • Fundamentals

Company

  • About
  • Contact
  • Dashboard

Legal

  • Disclaimer
  • Privacy
  • Terms

© 2026 MarketPulse AI. Data may be delayed.

Not financial advice. Markets carry risk.

  • Home
  • Markets
  • Search
  • Play
  • Alerts
All event markets
Live data
Politics
Active

US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 24?

Current implied probability

7%

Yes price

0.07

No price

0.94

Volume

$260.91K

Liquidity

$47.17K

24h volume

$65.52K

Ends

Aug 31, 2026 · 40d

A 7% market price means the market is currently pricing the outcome around 7%, not that the event is certain. Probabilities move as new information arrives.

Resolution risk

Medium resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Boundary-sensitive wording

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, cessation, or suspension of the United States' offensive military action against Iran, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease offensive military operations against Iran, including an announcement of a ceasefire, truce, or cessation of hostilities to which the United States is a party, even if some measures remain (for example, the naval blockade, sanctions, or a defensive military posture). A time-limited cessation qualifies, provided it constitutes a general suspension of US offensive military action against Iran. A qualifying announcement need not include a commitment from Iran, provided the end or suspension of US offensive military action is communicated. An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of offensive military action against Iran. For example, a pause limited to a specific area, target, or operation, a halt to a single wave of strikes while broader operations continue, or a reduction in the scope or intensity of operations would not qualify. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government's present cessation or suspension of offensive military action against Iran, previously-unannounced prior cessation or suspension of such military action, or definitive decision to cease or suspend such military action. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of US offensive military action against Iran. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to US offensive military action against Iran, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference a ceasefire by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending offensive military action against Iran is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government; Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to military action; Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; Announcements or acceptances of a ceasefire attributed only to Iran, mediating states, or any party other than the United States; and Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to military action rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether military action actually ends in practice. Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.

About this market

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, cessation, or suspension of the United States' offensive military action against Iran, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease offensive military operations against Iran, including an announcement of a ceasefire, truce, or cessation of hostilities to which the United States is a party, even if some measures remain (for example, the naval blockade, sanctions, or a defensive military posture). A time-limited cessation qualifies, provided it constitutes a general suspension of US offensive military action against Iran. A qualifying announcement need not include a commitment from Iran, provided the end or suspension of US offensive military action is communicated. An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of offensive military action against Iran. For example, a pause limited to a specific area, target, or operation, a halt to a single wave of strikes while broader operations continue, or a reduction in the scope or intensity of operations would not qualify. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government's present cessation or suspension of offensive military action against Iran, previously-unannounced prior cessation or suspension of such military action, or definitive decision to cease or suspend such military action. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of US offensive military action against Iran. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to US offensive military action against Iran, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference a ceasefire by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending offensive military action against Iran is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government; Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to military action; Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; Announcements or acceptances of a ceasefire attributed only to Iran, mediating states, or any party other than the United States; and Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to military action rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether military action actually ends in practice. Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.

Probability over time

Historical probability chart

The probability-over-time chart will appear here when enough price-history data is available for this market.

Event market prices are not guarantees. Probabilities can move quickly, liquidity can be thin, and resolution rules matter. MarketPulses shows educational analytics only and does not provide trading, betting, or investment advice. Read full disclaimer.

Related Politics markets

Politics
+0.1 pts

Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?

Yes probability

0%

Details
Volume$24.93M
Liquidity$30.32K
EndsClosed
Medium resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Closed / resolved
Politics
+2.8 pts

Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?

Yes probability

50%

Details
Volume$4.18M
Liquidity$98.22K
Ends100d
Low resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Politics
+5.0 pts

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?

Yes probability

100%

Details
Volume$792.12K
Liquidity$88.34K
EndsToday
High resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Ambiguous wording
Politics

Will LeBron James play for the Toronto Raptors in 2026-27?

Yes probability

0%

Details
Volume$675.64K
Liquidity$11.85K
Ends101d
Low resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution