Event Markets
Track prediction-market probabilities across politics, crypto, macro, sports, AI, and culture — for research and education.
Event market prices are not guarantees. Probabilities can move quickly, liquidity can be thin, and resolution rules matter. MarketPulses shows educational analytics only and does not provide trading, betting, or investment advice. Read full disclaimer.
60
$6.51M
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
+25.8 pts
Will Belgium be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?
19
Yes probability
0%
Yes probability
21%
Yes probability
0%
Yes probability
6%
Yes probability
0%
Yes probability
36%
Yes probability
2%
Yes probability
18%
Yes probability
0%
Yes probability
70%
Yes probability
1%
Yes probability
15%
Yes probability
24%
Yes probability
35%
Yes probability
0%
Yes probability
0%
Yes probability
52%
Yes probability
9%
Yes probability
58%
Yes probability
1%
Yes probability
0%
Yes probability
1%
Yes probability
87%
Yes probability
78%
Yes probability
0%
Yes probability
0%
Yes probability
2%
Yes probability
39%
Yes probability
0%
Yes probability
0%
Yes probability
23%
Yes probability
0%
Yes probability
75%
Yes probability
47%
Yes probability
2%
Yes probability
48%
Yes probability
0%
Yes probability
0%
Yes probability
2%
Yes probability
0%
Yes probability
0%
Yes probability
1%
Yes probability
41%
Yes probability
0%
Yes probability
35%
Yes probability
56%
Yes probability
42%
Yes probability
47%
Yes probability
48%
Yes probability
60%
Yes probability
0%
Yes probability
0%
Yes probability
9%
Yes probability
42%
Yes probability
7%
Yes probability
100%
Yes probability
3%
Yes probability
0%
Yes probability
22%
Yes probability
0%
Computed deterministically from the markets above — not an AI-written summary.
Top probability move
Will Belgium be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?+25.8 pts in 24h
Resolution-risk watch
Will Brandon Lowe hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?High resolution risk
A market price between 0 and 1 is read as an implied probability. A 63% market price means the market is currently pricing the outcome around 63%, not that the event is certain. Prices move as new information arrives, and thin liquidity can exaggerate swings. Always check the resolution rules and source before drawing conclusions.
Event markets let participants buy and sell contracts on real-world outcomes. The price of a 'Yes' contract (between 0 and 1) is read as the market's implied probability of that outcome — a price of 0.63 means the market is pricing the outcome at roughly 63%.
No. A probability is not a promise. Prices reflect current sentiment and can move quickly as new information arrives. A 70% market is wrong roughly 3 times out of 10 by construction.
No. MarketPulses shows educational analytics only. We do not provide trading, betting, or investment advice, and we offer no trade execution or wallet connection.
Probabilities move as traders react to news, polls, data releases, and shifting expectations. Thin liquidity can also cause prices to swing more sharply on small trades.
Resolution risk is the chance that a market's outcome is ambiguous or disputed when it settles — for example when wording depends on a specific source, date boundary, or official statement. MarketPulses flags wording that commonly leads to resolution disputes.