Event Markets
Track prediction-market probabilities across politics, crypto, macro, sports, AI, and culture — for research and education.
Event market prices are not guarantees. Probabilities can move quickly, liquidity can be thin, and resolution rules matter. MarketPulses shows educational analytics only and does not provide trading, betting, or investment advice. Read full disclaimer.
60
$2.2M
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
+72.5 pts
Will CA Paranaense win on 2026-08-24?
25
Yes probability
19%
Yes probability
1%
Yes probability
17%
Yes probability
0%
Yes probability
0%
Yes probability
8%
Yes probability
65%
Yes probability
0%
Yes probability
0%
Yes probability
0%
Yes probability
35%
Yes probability
100%
Yes probability
3%
Yes probability
73%
Yes probability
3%
Yes probability
43%
Yes probability
3%
Yes probability
0%
Yes probability
69%
Yes probability
9%
Yes probability
33%
Yes probability
8%
Yes probability
0%
Yes probability
10%
Yes probability
0%
Yes probability
71%
Yes probability
72%
Yes probability
93%
Yes probability
100%
Yes probability
2%
Yes probability
75%
Yes probability
35%
Yes probability
57%
Yes probability
100%
Yes probability
14%
Yes probability
28%
Yes probability
0%
Yes probability
87%
Yes probability
100%
Yes probability
68%
Yes probability
11%
Yes probability
42%
Yes probability
100%
Yes probability
61%
Yes probability
100%
Yes probability
0%
Yes probability
28%
Yes probability
6%
Yes probability
100%
Yes probability
80%
Yes probability
1%
Yes probability
11%
Yes probability
36%
Yes probability
5%
Yes probability
0%
Yes probability
82%
Yes probability
24%
Yes probability
3%
Yes probability
0%
Yes probability
33%
Computed deterministically from the markets above — not an AI-written summary.
Most liquid market
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?0% · Deepest liquidity in the set
A market price between 0 and 1 is read as an implied probability. A 63% market price means the market is currently pricing the outcome around 63%, not that the event is certain. Prices move as new information arrives, and thin liquidity can exaggerate swings. Always check the resolution rules and source before drawing conclusions.
Event markets let participants buy and sell contracts on real-world outcomes. The price of a 'Yes' contract (between 0 and 1) is read as the market's implied probability of that outcome — a price of 0.63 means the market is pricing the outcome at roughly 63%.
No. A probability is not a promise. Prices reflect current sentiment and can move quickly as new information arrives. A 70% market is wrong roughly 3 times out of 10 by construction.
No. MarketPulses shows educational analytics only. We do not provide trading, betting, or investment advice, and we offer no trade execution or wallet connection.
Probabilities move as traders react to news, polls, data releases, and shifting expectations. Thin liquidity can also cause prices to swing more sharply on small trades.
Resolution risk is the chance that a market's outcome is ambiguous or disputed when it settles — for example when wording depends on a specific source, date boundary, or official statement. MarketPulses flags wording that commonly leads to resolution disputes.