Event Markets
Track prediction-market probabilities across politics, crypto, macro, sports, AI, and culture — for research and education.
Event market prices are not guarantees. Probabilities can move quickly, liquidity can be thin, and resolution rules matter. MarketPulses shows educational analytics only and does not provide trading, betting, or investment advice. Read full disclaimer.
Yes probability
14%
Yes probability
38%
Yes probability
100%
Yes probability
87%
Yes probability
0%
Yes probability
16%
Yes probability
0%
Yes probability
4%
Yes probability
3%
Yes probability
100%
Yes probability
42%
Yes probability
0%
Yes probability
0%
Yes probability
80%
Yes probability
26%
Yes probability
91%
Yes probability
100%
Yes probability
10%
Yes probability
7%
Yes probability
1%
Yes probability
9%
Yes probability
0%
Yes probability
8%
Yes probability
74%
Yes probability
91%
Yes probability
87%
Yes probability
88%
Yes probability
16%
Yes probability
85%
Yes probability
20%
Yes probability
33%
Yes probability
0%
Yes probability
13%
Yes probability
10%
Yes probability
28%
Yes probability
43%
Yes probability
0%
Yes probability
0%
Yes probability
100%
Yes probability
0%
Yes probability
12%
Yes probability
100%
Yes probability
0%
Yes probability
96%
Yes probability
80%
Yes probability
63%
Yes probability
100%
Yes probability
100%
Yes probability
0%
Yes probability
14%
Yes probability
38%
Yes probability
0%
Yes probability
46%
Yes probability
1%
Yes probability
100%
Yes probability
36%
Yes probability
50%
Yes probability
2%
Yes probability
0%
Yes probability
0%
Computed deterministically from the markets above — not an AI-written summary.
Most liquid market
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?91% · Deepest liquidity in the set
A market price between 0 and 1 is read as an implied probability. A 63% market price means the market is currently pricing the outcome around 63%, not that the event is certain. Prices move as new information arrives, and thin liquidity can exaggerate swings. Always check the resolution rules and source before drawing conclusions.
Event markets let participants buy and sell contracts on real-world outcomes. The price of a 'Yes' contract (between 0 and 1) is read as the market's implied probability of that outcome — a price of 0.63 means the market is pricing the outcome at roughly 63%.
No. A probability is not a promise. Prices reflect current sentiment and can move quickly as new information arrives. A 70% market is wrong roughly 3 times out of 10 by construction.
No. MarketPulses shows educational analytics only. We do not provide trading, betting, or investment advice, and we offer no trade execution or wallet connection.
Probabilities move as traders react to news, polls, data releases, and shifting expectations. Thin liquidity can also cause prices to swing more sharply on small trades.
Resolution risk is the chance that a market's outcome is ambiguous or disputed when it settles — for example when wording depends on a specific source, date boundary, or official statement. MarketPulses flags wording that commonly leads to resolution disputes.