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Event Markets

Live data

Event Market Intelligence

Track prediction-market probabilities across politics, crypto, macro, sports, AI, and culture — for research and education.

Event market prices are not guarantees. Probabilities can move quickly, liquidity can be thin, and resolution rules matter. MarketPulses shows educational analytics only and does not provide trading, betting, or investment advice. Read full disclaimer.

Active markets shown

60

Highest-liquidity market

$6.51M

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Biggest 24h mover

+25.8 pts

Will Belgium be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?

Ending within 7 days

19

Explore markets

Sports
-2.1 pts

Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes probability

0%

Details
Volume$129.27M
Liquidity$4.92M
Ends9d
Low resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Sports
+3.8 pts

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes probability

21%

Details
Volume$101.78M
Liquidity$6.51M
Ends9d
Low resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Politics
+0.1 pts

Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?

Yes probability

0%

Details
Volume$38.1M
Liquidity$28.72K
EndsClosed
Medium resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Closed / resolved
Sports
+0.2 pts

Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes probability

6%

Details
Volume$126.5M
Liquidity$4.64M
Ends9d
Low resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Politics
+0.1 pts

Will Gedion Timothewos be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?

Yes probability

0%

Details
Volume$44.97M
Liquidity$16.88K
EndsClosed
Medium resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Closed / resolved
Sports
-2.0 pts

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes probability

36%

Details
Volume$110.01M
Liquidity$5.48M
Ends9d
Low resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Sports
-0.3 pts

Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes probability

2%

Details
Volume$122.29M
Liquidity$4.1M
Ends9d
Low resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Sports
-0.1 pts

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes probability

18%

Details
Volume$122.98M
Liquidity$6.18M
Ends9d
Low resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Politics
-0.1 pts

Will no listed leader be out before 2027?

Yes probability

0%

Details
Volume$9.18M
Liquidity$100.12K
Ends173d
Medium resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Boundary-sensitive wording
+3.0 pts

UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)

Yes probability

70%

Details
Volume$5.01M
Liquidity$2.46M
Ends2d
Low resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Ends soon
Politics
+0.5 pts

Will Alesa Mengesha be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?

Yes probability

1%

Details
Volume$13.56M
Liquidity$18.65K
EndsClosed
Medium resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Closed / resolved
Sports
-1.3 pts

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes probability

15%

Details
Volume$92.26M
Liquidity$5.32M
Ends9d
Low resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Sports
+1.0 pts

Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?

Yes probability

24%

Details
Volume$2.48M
Liquidity$2.14M
Ends1d
Medium resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Boundary-sensitive wording
Sports
+0.5 pts

Norway vs. England: Team to Advance

Yes probability

35%

Details
Volume$3.16M
Liquidity$654.83K
Ends1d
Medium resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Boundary-sensitive wording
Politics
-0.1 pts

Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?

Yes probability

0%

Details
Volume$4.71M
Liquidity$28.29K
EndsClosed
Medium resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Closed / resolved
Politics
-0.1 pts

Will Seyed Hossein Mousavian be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Yes probability

0%

Details
Volume$3.65M
Liquidity$56.3K
Ends173d
Medium resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Boundary-sensitive wording
Sports
-0.5 pts

Will England win on 2026-07-11?

Yes probability

52%

Details
Volume$1.35M
Liquidity$2.15M
Ends1d
Medium resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Boundary-sensitive wording
+4.0 pts

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Yes probability

9%

Details
Volume$14.28M
Liquidity$416.23K
Ends20d
Medium resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Boundary-sensitive wording
Sports
+1.3 pts

Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?

Yes probability

58%

Details
Volume$982.91K
Liquidity$1.36M
Ends1d
Medium resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Boundary-sensitive wording
Politics
-0.1 pts

Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Yes probability

1%

Details
Volume$43.17M
Liquidity$1.93M
Ends850d
Low resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
-0.1 pts

Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Yes probability

0%

Details
Volume$11.91M
Liquidity$480.03K
Ends148d
Low resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Politics

Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Yes probability

1%

Details
Volume$36.15M
Liquidity$1.51M
Ends850d
Low resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Sports

LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs LYON (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs

Yes probability

87%

Details
Volume$517.46K
Liquidity$272.62K
Ends1d
Medium resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Boundary-sensitive wording
Macro
-7.0 pts

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

Yes probability

78%

Details
Volume$13.02M
Liquidity$317.14K
Ends18d
Medium resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Boundary-sensitive wording

Will Brandon Lowe hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?

Yes probability

0%

Details
Volume$469.18K
Liquidity$2.05K
Ends92d
High resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Boundary-sensitive wording

Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Yes probability

0%

Details
Volume$9.2M
Liquidity$582.41K
Ends148d
Low resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Politics
-0.1 pts

Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Yes probability

2%

Details
Volume$14.89M
Liquidity$418.02K
Ends850d
Medium resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Boundary-sensitive wording
Macro
-5.0 pts

Athletics vs. Chicago White Sox

Yes probability

39%

Details
Volume$435.51K
Liquidity$430.5K
Ends7d
Medium resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Boundary-sensitive wording
Politics
+0.1 pts

Will Civic Platform (GP) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Yes probability

0%

Details
Volume$567.81K
Liquidity$49.25K
Ends81d
Low resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
-0.1 pts

Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Yes probability

0%

Details
Volume$12.17M
Liquidity$958.93K
Ends148d
Low resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Macro
+8.2 pts

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

Yes probability

23%

Details
Volume$11.58M
Liquidity$199.02K
Ends18d
Medium resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Boundary-sensitive wording
Politics
+0.1 pts

Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Yes probability

0%

Details
Volume$683.45K
Liquidity$63.52K
Ends81d
Low resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Sports
+1.0 pts

Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance

Yes probability

75%

Details
Volume$648.66K
Liquidity$930.18K
Ends1d
Medium resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Boundary-sensitive wording
Sports
+2.0 pts

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Yes probability

47%

Details
Volume$363.15K
Liquidity$465.84K
Ends7d
Medium resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Boundary-sensitive wording
Politics

Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Yes probability

2%

Details
Volume$7.15M
Liquidity$493.27K
Ends850d
Low resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Sports
-3.0 pts

Seattle Mariners vs. Tampa Bay Rays

Yes probability

48%

Details
Volume$332.23K
Liquidity$417.27K
Ends7d
Medium resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Boundary-sensitive wording
Politics
-0.3 pts

Will Vladimir Putin be the next leader out before 2027?

Yes probability

0%

Details
Volume$4.19M
Liquidity$49.38K
Ends173d
Medium resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Boundary-sensitive wording
-0.3 pts

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

Yes probability

0%

Details
Volume$8.64M
Liquidity$481.55K
Ends4d
Medium resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Boundary-sensitive wording
Sports
+0.9 pts

Will Rodri win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes probability

2%

Details
Volume$1.34M
Liquidity$57.78K
Ends10d
Medium resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Boundary-sensitive wording
Politics
-0.4 pts

Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election?

Yes probability

0%

Details
Volume$4.55M
Liquidity$352.57K
Ends293d
Low resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution

Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Yes probability

0%

Details
Volume$8.31M
Liquidity$960.63K
Ends148d
Low resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Sports
+0.1 pts

Will Ousmane Dembélé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes probability

1%

Details
Volume$487.58K
Liquidity$50.94K
Ends10d
Medium resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Boundary-sensitive wording
Politics
-10.9 pts

Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?

Yes probability

41%

Details
Volume$1.58M
Liquidity$23.15K
Ends113d
Low resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Macro
+0.1 pts

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?

Yes probability

0%

Details
Volume$8.68M
Liquidity$407.68K
Ends18d
Medium resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Boundary-sensitive wording
Sports
+3.0 pts

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Yes probability

35%

Details
Volume$275.39K
Liquidity$417.31K
Ends8d
Medium resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Boundary-sensitive wording
Sports
+0.8 pts

Norway vs. England: O/U 2.5

Yes probability

56%

Details
Volume$655.07K
Liquidity$793.64K
Ends1d
Medium resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Boundary-sensitive wording

UFC 329: Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoît Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card)

Yes probability

42%

Details
Volume$351.34K
Liquidity$145.31K
Ends2d
Low resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Ends soon
Sports
-3.0 pts

Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins

Yes probability

47%

Details
Volume$246.32K
Liquidity$422.96K
Ends7d
Medium resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Boundary-sensitive wording
Sports
+0.5 pts

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Detroit Tigers

Yes probability

48%

Details
Volume$243.94K
Liquidity$494.64K
Ends7d
Medium resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Boundary-sensitive wording
Sports
-5.0 pts

Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?

Yes probability

60%

Details
Volume$1.18M
Liquidity$315.77K
Ends9d
Medium resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Boundary-sensitive wording
Sports
-0.1 pts

Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes probability

0%

Details
Volume$3M
Liquidity$269.57K
Ends9d
Medium resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Boundary-sensitive wording
-0.2 pts

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?

Yes probability

0%

Details
Volume$1.87M
Liquidity$208.63K
EndsToday
Medium resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Boundary-sensitive wording
-2.5 pts

Iran full airspace closure by July 15?

Yes probability

9%

Details
Volume$1.55M
Liquidity$41.34K
Ends5d
Low resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Sports
-3.5 pts

Los Angeles Angels vs. Minnesota Twins

Yes probability

42%

Details
Volume$230.77K
Liquidity$557.59K
Ends7d
Medium resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Boundary-sensitive wording
Politics
-1.0 pts

Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?

Yes probability

7%

Details
Volume$978.53K
Liquidity$312.19K
Ends355d
Low resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Sports
+25.8 pts

Will Belgium be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?

Yes probability

100%

Details
Volume$247.68K
Liquidity$251.04K
Ends9d
Medium resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Boundary-sensitive wording
Sports
+0.1 pts

Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 England?

Yes probability

3%

Details
Volume$392.62K
Liquidity$366.81K
Ends1d
Medium resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Boundary-sensitive wording
Sports
-0.3 pts

Will Pedri win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes probability

0%

Details
Volume$536.76K
Liquidity$37.21K
Ends10d
Medium resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Boundary-sensitive wording
Politics
-3.0 pts

Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?

Yes probability

22%

Details
Volume$963.87K
Liquidity$58.81K
Ends21d
Medium resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Boundary-sensitive wording

Will CJ Abrams hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?

Yes probability

0%

Details
Volume$202.25K
Liquidity$2.67K
Ends92d
High resolution risk
Source-dependent resolution
Boundary-sensitive wording

Auto-generated market brief

Computed deterministically from the markets above — not an AI-written summary.

Top probability move

Will Belgium be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?

+25.8 pts in 24h

Most liquid market

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

21% · Deepest liquidity in the set

Closing soon

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?

Closes in 0 day(s)

Resolution-risk watch

Will Brandon Lowe hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?

High resolution risk

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How event market probabilities work

A market price between 0 and 1 is read as an implied probability. A 63% market price means the market is currently pricing the outcome around 63%, not that the event is certain. Prices move as new information arrives, and thin liquidity can exaggerate swings. Always check the resolution rules and source before drawing conclusions.

Event markets FAQ

What are event market probabilities?+

Event markets let participants buy and sell contracts on real-world outcomes. The price of a 'Yes' contract (between 0 and 1) is read as the market's implied probability of that outcome — a price of 0.63 means the market is pricing the outcome at roughly 63%.

Are these forecasts guaranteed?+

No. A probability is not a promise. Prices reflect current sentiment and can move quickly as new information arrives. A 70% market is wrong roughly 3 times out of 10 by construction.

Is this financial or betting advice?+

No. MarketPulses shows educational analytics only. We do not provide trading, betting, or investment advice, and we offer no trade execution or wallet connection.

Why do probabilities change?+

Probabilities move as traders react to news, polls, data releases, and shifting expectations. Thin liquidity can also cause prices to swing more sharply on small trades.

What is resolution risk?+

Resolution risk is the chance that a market's outcome is ambiguous or disputed when it settles — for example when wording depends on a specific source, date boundary, or official statement. MarketPulses flags wording that commonly leads to resolution disputes.