Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?

Current implied probability

27%

Yes price

0.27

No price

0.73

Volume

$200K

Liquidity

$29.81K

24h volume

$79.06K

Ends

Aug 11, 2026

A 27% market price means the market is currently pricing the outcome around 27%, not that the event is certain. Probabilities move as new information arrives.

Resolution risk

High resolution risk

Source-dependent resolution

Boundary-sensitive wording

Closed / resolved

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the special Republican Primary for United States Senator from South Carolina, including any potential runoff. If no 2026 special South Carolina Republican Senate Primary takes place by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the candidate who is the official Republican nominee to contest the November 3, 2026 South Carolina U.S. Senate election. If the results of the special primary are not definitively known, or if there is no Republican nominee to contest the November 3, 2026 South Carolina U.S. Senate election, by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the South Carolina Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

About this market

Probability over time

Historical probability chart

The probability-over-time chart will appear here when enough price-history data is available for this market.

Event market prices are not guarantees. Probabilities can move quickly, liquidity can be thin, and resolution rules matter. MarketPulses shows educational analytics only and does not provide trading, betting, or investment advice. Read full disclaimer.