Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Current implied probability

Yes price

0.00

No price

1.00

Volume

$4.85M

Liquidity

$180.03K

24h volume

$129.85K

Ends

Oct 4, 2026 · 74d

A 0% market price means the market is currently pricing the outcome around 0%, not that the event is certain. Probabilities move as new information arrives.

Resolution risk

Low resolution risk

Source-dependent resolution

Resolution rules

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

About this market

Probability over time

Historical probability chart

The probability-over-time chart will appear here when enough price-history data is available for this market.

Event market prices are not guarantees. Probabilities can move quickly, liquidity can be thin, and resolution rules matter. MarketPulses shows educational analytics only and does not provide trading, betting, or investment advice. Read full disclaimer.