Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?

Current implied probability

86%

Yes price

0.86

No price

0.14

Volume

$219.91K

Liquidity

$12.09K

24h volume

$67.63K

Ends

Dec 31, 2026 · 170d

A 86% market price means the market is currently pricing the outcome around 86%, not that the event is certain. Probabilities move as new information arrives.

Resolution risk

Low resolution risk

Source-dependent resolution

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Chancellor of the Exchequer will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chancellor of the Exchequer is appointed, or Rachel Reeves is re-appointed as Chancellor of the Exchequer, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No next Chancellor in 2026”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

About this market

Probability over time

Historical probability chart

The probability-over-time chart will appear here when enough price-history data is available for this market.

Event market prices are not guarantees. Probabilities can move quickly, liquidity can be thin, and resolution rules matter. MarketPulses shows educational analytics only and does not provide trading, betting, or investment advice. Read full disclaimer.