Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?

Current implied probability

Yes price

0.01

No price

0.99

Volume

$470.47K

Liquidity

$61.8K

24h volume

$98.89K

Ends

Jun 17, 2026

A 1% market price means the market is currently pricing the outcome around 1%, not that the event is certain. Probabilities move as new information arrives.

Resolution risk

Medium resolution risk

Source-dependent resolution

Closed / resolved

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for July 2026, currently scheduled for July 28-29. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no July meeting takes place by August 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

About this market

Probability over time

Historical probability chart

The probability-over-time chart will appear here when enough price-history data is available for this market.

Event market prices are not guarantees. Probabilities can move quickly, liquidity can be thin, and resolution rules matter. MarketPulses shows educational analytics only and does not provide trading, betting, or investment advice. Read full disclaimer.